Rate Volatility, EU Bond Stress Spilling Over Into FX -- Market Talk
Dow Jones2026/10/05 05:590559 GMT - Rising U.S. rate volatility and European bond-market stress is becoming a bigger FX story than the greenback's advance, OCBC strategists say. That's weighing on the euro, and creating a headwind for EM carry trades and risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, making investors less willing to hold high-beta, carry positions. Euro-area fragmentation concerns intensify the stress, OCBC's Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say. Pressure on European bank equities and the Swiss franc's outperformance suggest concerns are no longer confined to French bonds. Fragmentation fears fuel the risk that the ECB becomes more cautious on tightening as financial stability concerns compete with inflation. Continued rate volatility will maintain pressure on carry trades, cyclical currencies and the euro. Havens such as the franc and greenback should stay supported. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 05, 2026 01:59 ET (05:59 GMT)
0559 GMT - Rising U.S. rate volatility and European bond-market stress is becoming a bigger FX story than the greenback's advance, OCBC strategists say. That's weighing on the euro, and creating a headwind for EM carry trades and risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, making investors less willing to hold high-beta, carry positions. Euro-area fragmentation concerns intensify the stress, OCBC's Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say. Pressure on European bank equities and the Swiss franc's outperformance suggest concerns are no longer confined to French bonds. Fragmentation fears fuel the risk that the ECB becomes more cautious on tightening as financial stability concerns compete with inflation. Continued rate volatility will maintain pressure on carry trades, cyclical currencies and the euro. Havens such as the franc and greenback should stay supported. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 05, 2026 01:59 ET (05:59 GMT)
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