On Friday, June 26, Ripple [XRP] prices fell to $1.009, the closest brush of the psychological $1 level since November 2024. Despite the market weakness, XRP spot ETF inflows remained positive.
AMBCrypto reported that this spot ETF demand was tightening the available XRP supply, though it might not result in immediate positive gains in these stressed market conditions.
The lack of broader market XRP demand and reduced speculative interest in recent months pointed to a gloomy outlook.
Can the XRP bulls defend $1 from subsequent sell-offs?
Source: XRP/USDT on TradingView
The 1-day XRP chart highlighted an altcoin trading within a long-term downtrend. The persistent downtrend stretches back to July 2025. In February earlier this year, the swing low at $1.61 from April 2025 was breached, confirming a bearish trend.
For a few months, a range formation [purple] was in place, but the sell-off towards the end of May was too hot for the bulls to handle. At the time of writing, after a brief bounce toward $1.3, XRP was chopping about the $1.05 local lows.
The XRP price expectations for July
Source: CryptoQuant
The Open Interest has stabilized around 400 million XRP in recent months. The Open Interest Turnover Ratio was also holding stable near 0.71. The lack of wild spikes in either metric meant that the speculative market was calmer and more stable.
The derivatives traders were not too eager to place directional bets, and short-term speculation has slowed down. Analyst Arab Chain wrote that traders can use a spike in OI and the turnover ratio as an early warning of increased volatility.
Source: XRP/USDT on TradingView
The 4-hour chart showed XRP was trading within a downtrend. The bounce to $1.2935 in mid-June was only a pullback toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.2985.
This bounce was quickly sold off, and XRP was about to extend its bearish leg toward the southward extension targets at $0.975 and $0.854.
Therefore, as July progresses, a Ripple token price drop below $1 appeared highly likely.
Final Summary
- The speculative activity has dried up and the derivatives market was calmer, but traders need to be wary of changing conditions and heightened volatility.
- Based on the evidence at hand, the bearish XRP momentum and structure would likely see prices fall toward $0.85 in July.
