Barclays: If the US-Iran agreement holds, summer eurozone bond arbitrage will be favorable with controlled supply.

(1) Barclays rate strategists stated that if the US-Iran agreement holds, the summer environment will be favorable for arbitrage trades in Eurozone government bonds. (2) On the supply side, a seasonal slowdown is expected, and issuance volumes will remain controlled even after the summer. Strategists expect the total issuance in September to be about 140 billion euros (well below January’s nearly 200 billion), with net issuance around 60 billion euros (also far below January's approximately 130 billion). (3) The significant decrease in issuance compared to the beginning of the year is mainly because most of the syndicated bond supply expected for 2026 has already been largely completed.