Trump comments fuel dispute over Polymarket's $120 million 'permanent' Iran peace deal market

A more than $120 million Polymarket market on a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal has entered the platform's dispute process, with traders divided over whether the agreement announced before the June 15 deadline meets the market's resolution criteria.

The market asked whether the United States and Iran would agree to a "permanent peace deal" by June 15. Under the rules, a qualifying agreement must "explicitly indicate that military hostilities between the two countries have ended or will permanently cease," or otherwise clearly signal a "lasting end to hostilities."

As of Wednesday morning, the market remained in Polymarket's dispute process, which allows holders of UMA's governance token to cast their vote on contested market outcomes.

While voting is still ongoing, more than 99% of voting power has backed a "Yes" outcome, according to the market page. The June 15 contract has attracted more than $120 million in volume and is one of the largest political markets currently on Polymarket.

Yes or no?

At the center of the dispute is a memorandum of understanding announced on June 15 that the Trump administration says ended the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Trump signaled an agreement was imminent a day earlier, writing on Truth Social that "the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete." Iran's Supreme National Security Council later confirmed that the two countries had finalized an MoU after months of negotiations.

Supporters of a "Yes" resolution are pointing to these statements as evidence that both governments publicly confirmed a deal had been reached before the market's deadline.

But those who bought "No" contracts contend the agreement falls short of the market's definition of a permanent peace deal. Critics noted that the agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire and still leaves issues like Iran's nuclear program and sanctions open to negotiations.

Complicating things further, Trump made comments on Wednesday, after the market's deadline passed, characterizing the agreement as an interim measure rather than a final settlement.

"It's a memorandum of understanding," Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, according to Reuters. "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."

Polymarket disputes pile up

This controversy comes hot on the heels of another major Polymarket dispute earlier this month involving a market on whether Strategy would sell any bitcoin before May 31.

That contract ultimately resolved to "No" following an UMA vote despite objections from traders who argued that the company did indeed make the sale before the market deadline, even though it wasn't revealed in an SEC filing until after the deadline passed.