AVAX plunges more than 95 percent from its peak! Is there more downside ahead?

The challenge of reclaiming critical resistance

A key technical hurdle persists as AVAX continues to trade below the $8.00 to $9.00 range, which previously served as strong support and has now flipped into resistance. With the price stuck beneath this zone, any short-lived bounces are at risk of triggering renewed selling pressure unless AVAX can break back above it.

Analyst Global Rashid highlights that support near $8.00 has been definitively lost. According to Rashid, the next major test could be in the $4.50 to $5.50 area, a region that previously acted as both trend support and a key technical pivot.

Price reactions around $6.68 for AVAX do not yet represent a reversal of the broader downtrend unless the $8.00 to $9.00 range is retaken.

Short-term signals point to continued selling pressure

On lower time frames, AVAX remains without a clear sign of strength. In a recent analysis by OlaxBT, the price is holding above the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), but the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator has dropped sharply, highlighting persistent sell-side pressure even as the token displays some resilience.

Mini glossary: VWAP calculates the average price taking both volume and price into account over a given period. CVD tracks the cumulative difference between buy and sell orders; when it falls, it indicates growing sell pressure in the market.

The same analysis notes that the MFI (Money Flow Index) has shifted to a more neutral territory, yet the lack of strong buying volume suggests that any recovery for now remains fragile. For AVAX to stage a meaningful reversal, the token needs to hold above $6.50, then reclaim the $7.00 to $7.50 zone with sturdy trading volume. Failure to do so could render the current move just another “lower high” in the ongoing downtrend.

Key support levels emerge on higher time frames

Looking at the longer-term charts, downside risk still looms large. Trader Rami Scalps pinpoints $3.50 as a pivotal level and argues that AVAX may be operating in a broad corrective structure, possibly leaving space for one final sweep down. Similarly, The Wyckoff Architect views a potential move toward the $3.00 mark as likely.

Charts from several analysts on higher time frames indicate that the $3.50 to $3.00 band is being closely monitored as a potential bottom for AVAX.

Treasury activity supports long-term narrative

On the fundamentals side, recent updates on Avalanche’s treasury strategies have drawn attention. Crypto commentator That Martini Guy notes that although Avalanche Treasury shares fell by 38 percent on their first day trading on the Nasdaq, the firm still plans to purchase over $1 billion in AVAX tokens. Avalanche remains recognized as a layer 1 network designed for high scalability within its own blockchain infrastructure.

Nonetheless, technical factors continue to take precedence in the short run. As long as the price stays below $8.00, the risk remains for deeper drops to $5.50, then $4.50, and potentially into the $3.50 to $3.00 support region. On a more bullish scenario, a strong recovery could see AVAX first targeting the $7.50 to $8.00 bracket, and then potentially eyeing the $10 to $12 zone once again.