Huatai Futures: US Inflation Data Rises, Precious Metals Experience Major Volatility

Source: Huatai Futures

Author: Shi Cheng

Market News and Key Data

Macro

For the week of 2026-05-29, precious metals remained volatile and experienced significant fluctuations. In terms of geopolitics, U.S. President Trump reiterated his stance on Iran, saying a "final decision" would be made. Trump stated that Iran must agree never to possess nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened for passage in both directions and be fee-free. The U.S. Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will soon be lifted. Iran's enriched uranium materials will be extracted and destroyed. Trump indicated that the U.S. and Iran have reached agreements on secondary issues beyond Iran’s nuclear program and passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the exchanges between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing and a final consensus has not yet been reached. According to The New York Times, Trump held a nearly two-hour meeting with his aides in the White House Situation Room but did not make a "final decision" regarding the agreement with Iran. In terms of economic data, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, marking the highest level since May 2023; the core PCE price index rose 3.3%, a high since November 2023, primarily driven by rising energy prices due to the Iran war. Real consumer spending grew only 0.1% month-on-month. U.S. Q1 real GDP growth was revised down to 1.6%, below the market expectation of 2%. With weak consumption, heightened inflation, and the downgraded economic growth, the risk signals for U.S. economic stagnation (stagflation) are becoming increasingly prominent.

Fundamentals

During the week of 2026-05-29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warrant inventory was 111,669 kilograms, unchanged from the previous week. Silver warrants decreased by 9,891 kilograms to 976,900 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week Comex gold inventory dropped by 388,027.39 ounces to 28,282,868.64 ounces, while Comex silver inventory changed by 2,634,364.13 ounces to 316,489,764.02 ounces.

As for precious metals ETFs, as of the latest week of May 28, the gold SPDR ETF holding was 1,032.57 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holding was 15,119 tons. By May 26, 2026, CFTC data showed speculative net long gold holdings at 96,931 contracts and silver net long holdings at 10,244 contracts.

For the photovoltaic price index, as of the latest data on May 25, 2026, it was reported at 14.61, down 0.16 from the previous period. The photovoltaic managers index was reported at 120.59, down 6.18 month-on-month.

Strategy

Gold: Cautiously bullish

This week, precious metal prices continued to fluctuate, with the market focus still on geopolitical developments and U.S. inflation expectations; on the economic data side, both the sharp rise in PCE and the downward revision of U.S. Q1 real GDP growth to 1.6%, below the market expectation of 2%, imply a potential risk of U.S. economic stagflation, which may further boost precious metal prices. In addition, despite ongoing back-and-forth between the U.S. and Iran on the geopolitical front, while the market has started to price in that a substantive peace agreement is unlikely in the short term, concerns about the expansion of the war may also ease, so with the restoration of risk appetite, precious metals are still expected to rebound further.

Silver: Cautiously bullish

Currently, the logic for silver is similar to gold; however, since silver itself is relatively more volatile, it is still advisable to continue buying on dips to hedge, but more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution.

Arbitrage: On hold for now

Options: On hold for now

Risk

External liquidity shocks

Investment Advisory Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No.1289

Responsible Editor: Zhu Henan