Shenwan Macro: The US-Iran "Memorandum of Understanding" Does Not Equal a Full Reopening of the Strait

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on June 1 that a macro research report by Shenwan Hongyuan states that, according to public information, recent US-Iran negotiations aim to reach a 60-day "Memorandum of Understanding," with a subsequent second phase of talks addressing more challenging issues. The recent talks are mainly focused on extending the ceasefire and resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in order to quickly reduce tail risks in the global energy market. However, there will still be a second phase of negotiations around topics such as the "nuclear issue." This means that even if a "Memorandum" is reached, it will not resolve differences in one stroke. Judging by the progress, the "Memorandum" may be close to "technical completion," but the risk of short-term setbacks remains. The signing of the "Memorandum of Understanding" does not equate to the "reopening of the strait"; there is still a considerable gap between reaching an agreement and its actual implementation. Memorandums of Understanding are usually regarded as "informal agreements" without legal binding force. Even if the strait reopens briefly, there are still risks to maintaining it in the medium term; if the second-phase talks do not go smoothly, the reopening of the strait could also be reversed.```