UK employment data supports Bank of England's plan for a March interest rate reduction

UK Employment Outlook: Gradual Changes Ahead

We anticipate a slow and steady decline in employment figures, rather than a sudden downturn. Last year, the public sector experienced a 0.6% increase in staffing, but this year, with more restrained government spending, it is unlikely to counterbalance the ongoing softness in private sector employment.

Regarding unemployment, some policymakers at the Bank of England argue that the recent sharp decrease in net migration could lead to a tighter labour market in the near future—a possibility that cannot be dismissed. However, we believe that the substantial rise in migration over the past several years continues to play a more influential role in shaping the jobs landscape.