The U.S. President Donald Trump-linked crypto project, The Official Trump [TRUMP], is facing fresh bearish pressure as the token is scheduled for a massive unlock event.
Based on the current market sentiment and experts’ opinions, it appears that this token unlock could heavily impact the asset’s price.
Recently, crypto researcher Wu Blockchain shared a post on X, revealing that The Official Trump will unlock a massive 6.33 million TRUMP tokens worth $21.58 million.
The post further disclosed that this unlock represents 2.72% of the total circulating supply.
A token unlock refers to the scheduled release of tokens that were previously locked by a project to control inflation, stabilize the market, and regulate the circulating supply.
However, it often drives selling pressure on the asset’s price.
TRUMP price and rising volume
On the 16th of February, TRUMP has lost 1% of its value and is currently trading at the $3.48 level, while during this period it also recorded an intraday high of $3.57.
This decline in the asset’s price indicates that selling pressure has begun.
Despite the price drop, market participants have shown strong interest in the asset, as reflected in trading volume, which jumped 65% to $155.45 million.
The suggests that traders may be actively engaging with the current trend.
Price action eyes another 12% dip
Looking at the four-hour chart, TRUMP appeared poised for a sharp downside move, as the price was showing signs of reversal from the upper boundary of the channel pattern it has been following since the 15th of February.
Over the past three instances, whenever the asset’s price reached this upper boundary, it experienced a significant decline.
Source: TradingView
Considering TRUMP’s past performance and the upcoming token unlock, it appears that the asset could repeat its historical move.
If TRUMP fails to break out of the parallel channel pattern or clear the upper boundary near the $3.62 level, it could see a price dip of around 12% and may reach the $3.08 level in the coming days.
The bearish thesis for TRUMP would only be invalidated if the asset’s price breaks out of the channel pattern and closes a four-hour candle above the $3.62 level.
As of now, the Average Directional Index (ADX), an indicator that measures trend strength, stands at 24.17—below the key threshold of 25—indicating weak directional momentum.
Derivative tools strengthen TRUMP’s bearish outlook
In addition to the price action and the token unlock update, data from the derivatives analytics platform Coinglass further reinforces the bearish outlook for TRUMP.
According to CoinGlass, intraday traders are currently following the market trend by placing heavy bets around $3.43 on the downside and $3.64 on the upside.
At these levels, traders have built approximately $1.54 million in long leveraged positions and $3.34 million in short leveraged positions. These positions indicate that sentiment is tilted toward the bearish side.
Source: Coinglass
At the same time, long-term holders appear to be offloading their TRUMP holdings. Based on the spot inflow/outflow metric over the past 24 hours, around $2.42 million worth of TRUMP tokens have moved into exchanges, hinting at a potential sell-off.
Source: CoinGlass
When combining the token unlock event, bearish price action, traders’ leveraged bets, and large exchange inflows, all signs currently point to a bearish outlook.
However, this could shift if broader market sentiment improves and TRUMP breaks above its key resistance level at $3.62.
Final Summary
- The Official Trump is scheduled for a massive token unlock of 6.33 million TRUMP, worth $21.58 million.
- TRUMP appears poised for a 12% price dip, as the token has begun facing resistance at the key $3.62 level—similar to what occurred in the past.
