A fresh rally may be underway in the cryptocurrency market, according to a senior analyst at blockchain data firm Santiment, who says investor sentiment is setting up a classic bullish signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.
Brian Quinlivan, marketing director at Santiment, crypto prices are rising at a time when traders remain skeptical, a pattern that has historically supported further gains.
Why low excitement can be bullish
Santiment tracks millions of social media posts to measure how bullish or bearish traders feel. Historically, crypto markets tend to rise when sentiment drops back to neutral or slightly negative.
Earlier this week, sentiment briefly showed signs of FOMO, but that quickly faded. Prices began climbing only after enthusiasm cooled, a pattern that often signals healthier rallies.
Despite Bitcoin moving close to recent highs, traders remain skeptical, suggesting many are still waiting for stronger confirmation before turning bullish.
Bitcoin breaks away from stocks
Bitcoin’s recent strength stands out because it came while U.S. stocks were under pressure. The S&P 500 slipped during the session, while crypto prices moved higher.
This divergence matters because Bitcoin has closely followed U.S. equities for much of the past few years. Santiment data shows Bitcoin lagged behind both stocks and gold since mid-December, creating room for a catch-up move.
That gap, analysts say, supports the case for a push toward the $100,000 level if sentiment stays under control.
Traders still worry after past failures
Many traders remain hesitant after several failed rallies late last year. Previous moves toward the $95,000 level ended quickly, leaving investors wary of another false breakout.
This lingering doubt may now be helping prices, as markets often move higher when the majority remains unconvinced.
Ethereum shows early signs of heat
Ethereum has also risen, but sentiment around the token is warming faster than Bitcoin’s. Santiment’s MVRV metric shows both short-term and long-term holders sitting in profit, a condition that has previously preceded short-term pullbacks.
While Ethereum can still climb if Bitcoin continues higher, the data suggests Bitcoin currently offers a slightly better short-term setup.
XRP hype rises, long-term picture steadier
XRP has seen one of the sharpest jumps in online optimism, with bullish posts clearly outnumbering bearish ones. Past data shows such spikes are often followed by brief corrections, making short-term trading riskier.
However, longer-term indicators are more balanced. XRP remains well below its mid-2024 highs, and long-term holders are still underwater, which reduces downside risk for investors with a longer time horizon.
