Fidelity Predicts 42% of Bitcoin Supply Could Be Illiquid by 2032

Quick Breakdown 

• Fidelity projects 8.3M BTC (42% of supply) could be illiquid by 2032.
• Driven by long-term holders and 105 public companies with major BTC reserves.
• Shrinking liquid supply may tighten markets and boost Bitcoin’s price.

Asset management giant Fidelity has projected that nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could become illiquid within the next decade, a development that may significantly impact market dynamics and price outlooks.

Long-term holders cement supply constraints

In its latest report released Monday, Fidelity highlighted that 42% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply equal to roughly 8.3 million BTC could be classified as illiquid by 2032. The firm defined illiquid supply as Bitcoin held by wallets that have consistently increased their balance each quarter for at least the past four years, or at least 90% of the time.

Two groups were identified as driving this trend: long-term holders who have not moved their Bitcoin for at least seven years, and publicly traded companies with holdings exceeding 1,000 BTC. According to Fidelity, long-term holders have shown unwavering commitment, with no net decline in their balances since 2016.

Source : Fidelity

Public companies strengthen bitcoin treasuries

The second cohort, public companies, has also displayed strong conviction. As of now, 105 listed firms collectively hold more than 969,000 BTC, representing 4.61% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This group has only registered one quarter of net outflows, during Q2 2022, underscoring its resilience despite market volatility.

Fidelity estimates that by the end of 2025, these combined groups will control over six million Bitcoin, amounting to nearly 28% of the 21 million coins that will ever exist. If current accumulation patterns persist, the figure could rise to 8.3 million BTC by 2032. Notably, the forecast does not account for potential additional supply absorption from new corporate entrants.

With Bitcoin’s circulating supply at approximately 19.8 million as of Q2 2025, the projected illiquid share underscores tightening availability on the open market.

Amid growing scarcity concerns, bold ideas for Bitcoin’s future continue to emerge. A new proposal suggests Bitcoin could become the first currency to operate seamlessly across planets, enabling transfers between Earth and Mars in as little as three minutes.

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