Ethereum is currently in a strong uptrend, showing resilience above key levels as it consolidates after a sharp move from $2,200 to around $4,000. Yet, there are some signs of exhaustion beginning to surface on the lower timeframes, which could translate to a deep pullback on the higher ones.
Technical Analysis
By ShayanMarkets
The Daily Chart
ETH continues to consolidate below the $4,000 zone after its aggressive rally from the $2,800 breakout level. The asset is holding above the previous resistance-turned-support at the $3,400 area, and the buyers are defending that zone well so far. The 100-day moving average has also started to curl up and is chasing the price, confirming the bullish structure and momentum.
Looking ahead, the major resistance remains at $4,100, which is the 2024 high. If the buyers manage to reclaim momentum and push above $3,800, a retest and breakout above the $4,100 level could be on the table. On the flip side, losing $3,400 would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the $2,800 area, which also coincides with the 100-day moving average.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows that ETH swept the $3,700 highs and was rejected twice, forming equal highs and suggesting some exhaustion in the short term. The asset has now created a lower high and potentially a lower low after weeks of bullish structure, which could be the beginning of a deep pullback if the $3,700 resistance level holds.
Yet, for now, ETH is respecting the local demand zone at $3,500. As long as this level holds, short-term bias remains neutral to bullish. A break below $3,500, however, could attract sellers and trigger a move toward $3,300 and even lower. On the other hand, reclaiming $3,700 and holding above it would open the door toward $3,900 and possibly $4,100.
Sentiment Analysis
Open Interest
Open Interest has started ticking lower after peaking near $28B just as ETH reached $3,800. This slight drop in OI during consolidation suggests some long positions have been closed or liquidated. However, the broader trend is still clearly upward, with open interest doubling since May.
This trend shows that traders are still heavily participating in ETH derivatives, although the market may be due for a reset. Yet, there is still room for more upside before excessive risk builds up. For now, it’s healthy to see a slight decline in leverage as price consolidates.
